***CLEARLY MARKED*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ***CLEARLY MARKED***
My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW. Go to https://t.co/GX3ZxT5xyq — Have Fun! pic.twitter.com/flIKYyfBrC
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 18, 2025
All my love goes out to Donald Trump and his wife Melania for vastly increasing my personal net worth over the weekend. I cannot express how much this massive amount of free money means to me.
For those who don’t know, Donald dropped his meme coin on Friday. I was on it immediately. Then, on Sunday, Melania dropped her coin. I’d already pulled profits so large from $TRUMP that I’m embarrassed to say how much it was, and was able to get on $MELANIA in the first 15 minutes. I’m also embarrassed to say how many times my money was multiplied on that deal.
Right now, I’m out of $MELANIA and back in $TRUMP, having pulled my principle and some significant profits.
This is not financial advice.
I’m right now so far into the black that I cannot lose.
At time of writing, neither coin is on Coinbase, and I think that is going to significantly boost the boomer participation in these scams.
Is This a Scam?
There is not anything else that a “meme coin” can be other than a scam. The rug is always pulled at some point, meaning the founder of the coin sells his shares and the value of the coin plummets. This is what Hawk Tuah did: she made a coin, advertised it, it went viral, then she pulled the rug.
In other news
The hawktuah girl just blatantly rugged everybody on a memecoin
Top 10 holders had 94%
They have 87% now
She launched it & within 15 minutes it giga nuked from 500m to 65m
She actually might go to jail for this lol
Nfa
— smokethatdank.eth 💎🦷 (@smokethatdank1) December 4, 2024
She rugged those faggots like a real nigga from the streets.
For those who don’t understand: you can participate in the scam. That is why shit coins AKA “meme coins” are popular. The founder of the coin keeps a large percentage of the total supply, then others buy in and his shares go up. But everyone else’s shares go up as well. Of course, someone loses money when the rug finally gets pulled, so you have to get out before the rug gets pulled.
However, I do not know what the plan for the Trump family’s scam is.
I simply cannot imagine that he is going to pull the rug quickly. Firstly, it is of dubious legality to rug pull. Secondly, he has 80% of the coin in one wallet, which means, like with the Hawk Tuah rug pull, it would be obvious that he pulled it. That is to say: people can see who owns the coin, and we can see a wallet with 80% of the coins in it, which is obviously Trump’s own wallet. If he was planning a quick rug pull, he would have split it into different wallets, to create plausible deniability when he pulls the rug, where it could just be random people dumping followed by a panic sale.
It seems more likely that he is going to wait and pump the coin over a period of time.
To be clear: although the market cap of $TRUMP is $11.6 billion right now, he could not dump his entire 80% and get $9 billion. He could dump maybe 5-7% and make $500-800 million. It’s a lot of money, but he’s already relatively rich, and doing a shitcoin rugpull on his own supporters at the beginning of his presidency would be totally nuts.
More likely, he is planning to pump it throughout his presidency. If he dies and Barron or someone else inherits it, it would not be illegal for them to dump it. And, if he pumps it enough, it won’t matter if he pulls some of the money later, because it will be worth so much.
Elon did not create DOGE coin, but he owns most of it (or some very significant amount) and has not rug-pulled yet. And DOGE currently has a market cap of $56 billion. So could $TRUMP go that high, or higher? Yeah, it absolutely could.
This is not financial advice. And to be totally clear: there is no value proposition for a shitcoin. It is necessarily without any value other than the tulips thing. Bitcoin has a value proposition, in that it could (and almost certainly will be) a primary global currency. Monero has value because it is private (the transactions are not public). Some other coins have propositions, though I don’t really believe in any of them very strongly. So people need to be aware that there is no intrinsic value to these Trump family coins (or DOGE, or whatever else) and no theoretical value beyond people buying it because Trump pumped it.
$MELANIA is Confusing
The Official Melania Meme is live!
You can buy $MELANIA now. https://t.co/8FXvlMBhVf
FUAfBo2jgks6gB4Z4LfZkqSZgzNucisEHqnNebaRxM1P pic.twitter.com/t2vYiahRn6
— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) January 19, 2025
I don’t understand why Melania dropped her coin so soon after Trump dropped his. It is not strategic, and does make it look like a rug pull. The value of $TRUMP immediately dropped by 35% when $MELANIA went live with her tweet, so it just makes very little sense, generally, from their perspective. At one point, $MELANIA was valued higher than $TRUMP.
What I think is possible is that Melania dropped the coin without Trump’s permission. That actually seems the most likely to me. They do not really seem to have the greatest marriage; she seems quite cold and distant and doesn’t really do much to help him that I can see. And yes, I understand that those accusations of infidelity may have some merit, and although I don’t think that is an excuse, it is what it is.
Therefore: I would not be surprised if she pulled the rug and then divorced Trump and moved to a villa in Italy. I’m not bullish on $MELANIA. Though there is a scenario in which $MELANIA not only does well but does better than $TRUMP, I do not calculate a high likelihood of that happening. I think – again, most likely, not financial advice, all that – $TRUMP will be the big one.
David Sachs is the Crypto Czar (This is Good)
Just so you understand, Trump hired David Sachs as the “crypto czar.” David Sachs is very smart. I like him. I don’t agree with everything, he supports Elon’s replacement plan, but I appreciate many of his other stated positions and I think he is a very competent economic mind. I don’t think Trump himself knows about crypto, and given that he has an in-house expert, it seems unlikely he would drop this coin without consulting Sachs.
What that would imply is that Trump wants to use $TRUMP to get people involved in crypto (while also making huge sums of money personally). Sachs is heavily invested in Bitcoin, as is his entire crew, and a rugpull by Trump would totally wreck the crypto market.
The other thing about crypto generally is that at scale, it could be deflationary. The US dollar is a joke in terms of a store of value, so people buy up stocks and, importantly, property, to store their wealth. Blowing up the crypto market would be good for the economy, as it would park a bunch of money in something that is totally irrelevant to the rest of the economy. Trump is obsessed with the economy, and creating affordable housing would make normal people feel like the economy is benefiting them.
It’s a big win-win all around to pump $TRUMP and crypto in general, whereas pulling the rug would be completely insane. It would make everyone hate him and it would create a legal problem. He could try to pardon himself, but it’s not actually clear if that’s possible (Biden didn’t do it, despite many issues he could potentially face, and despite the fact that he clearly does not care how bad he looks).
This is Not Financial Advice
Anything could happen here.
Even if Trump doesn’t pull the rug on $TRUMP, it is still going to be extremely volatile. The chart looks sort of normal right now, but there is no way to analyze it based on two days of data.
While it looks normal, I will note that that drop is the single biggest drop in a short period that I’ve ever seen, excluding totally ridiculous rug pulls like Hawk Tuah. But this wasn’t a rug pull. Trump’s wallet is still full (and it doesn’t look like he has secondary wallets, though that is possible). The drop was a result of $MELANIA dropping and everyone knowing that they can get 25X if they rush over there.
An official Trump coin was such an obvious thing that was going to pump that people were dropping their entire net worth into it, and then they moved it to Melania’s coin. Nothing like this has ever happened before, so it makes sense the chart is something new.
I am Bullish on $TRUMP
This is not financial advice. But I’m bullish on $TRUMP.
Initially, I thought it was going to be a rug pull, because that is what these coins always are, but having thought this all through on my day off work, I do not think he would do that. If he did, it would probably be the single funniest thing anyone has ever done in all of human history, but I don’t think he’s going to do it. Everyone would hate him, it would be an international issue, everyone would be calling for prosecutions, and all of the rest.
Again, the fact that it’s not a rug pull doesn’t mean it is going to the Moon, but the argument of “why would DOGE be worth more than $TRUMP?” appears to be a relatively sound line of reasoning to me. It’s hard to argue with. That would mean $TRUMP would go 5X, while there is no real likelihood of Bitcoin going that high in the short term. However, Bitcoin was likely set to 1.5X in the near future on its own, and if Trump is drawing boomers and others into the crypto market, that is also going to be very good for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is much safer, because there is no way it goes to $0, and there is no real scenario in which it has already hit its all-time-high. So even if Bitcoin dropped back down to $18,000, as long as you didn’t sell it, you would be able to make profits in the future.
There is a nonzero chance $TRUMP will go to zero, and in the longer term, I would say that is most likely. However, Donald Trump is the most famous person ever, in all of human history, which gives him a very serious ability to pump.
The real wildcard here is $MELANIA. If Melania is operating independently of Trump, which seems more and more likely the more I think about it, and she does a rug pull, it will make everyone think $TRUMP is going to dump as well and people will panic sell. But that would actually seriously affect all crypto, so hopefully Melania can be convinced not to rugpull that bitch.
I would be a lot more bullish on $TRUMP if $MELANIA didn’t exist.
People Promoting Coins Based on Personal Image Will be a Thing and May Replace the Classic Rug Pull
Although the Hawk Tuah girl is really a funny person and I think her scamming people so aggressively out of tens of millions of dollars was very hilarious, it was unfortunate, as it set a standard for celebrities pulling the rug.
However, I think that in the longer term, what you are going to see is people associating “meme coins” with their personal brands, and people will buy or sell based on how that person’s public image is doing. This means that celebrities can make money off of the coins without doing a rug pull.
I hope DOGE dumps and Elon gets stuck with the bag. But he’s structured his coin in an interesting way (it’s maybe the only impressive thing he’s ever done), taking a coin that was already a meme and just buying enough of it to make him the de facto founder. It’s a very smart move, because people sort of associate it with him, because he’s the one that pumped it, but they view him as simply a supporter rather than the primary beneficiary.
He might even launch his own coin separately.
Basically, when any celebrity launches a coin, it is going to massively explode in the first few hours, really in the first 10-20 minutes, regardless. It could dump quickly, depending on the circumstance.
Not Financial Advice
These are all just raw thoughts and my own personal analysis of the situation. I make very little money on this website, because very few people donate. I literally work another job. So I look for these kinds of opportunities to try to make money. This is the logic I am operating on, personally.
That’s all.
This is not financial advice.
If you make money, please consider sending me a cut.