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Internet conspiracy theorists tend to assume that every single thing is an indisputable sign of the impending apocalypse.
Half of this is just because some people are naturally paranoic, and want to tell you about it. The other half is because some people want to hear it, so there’s an audience.
Alex Jones, for example, has been warning for years about the risk of a solar flare devastating electrical and telecommunications infrastructure. But because he sells things related to disaster preparedness, it’s hard to know what to think about that.
Well, Deutsche Bank is saying the same thing.
And they are serious banker people. They don’t play around.
After Tuesday’s rally on better-than-expected retail sales figures and an encouraging study of a drug to treat coronavirus patients, the S&P 500 has rallied 40% from its closing low and is down just 8% from its February peak.
Clearly, disasters aren’t necessarily devastating to financial markets. That’s worth bearing in mind when considering a new report from Deutsche Bank that looked at the next massive tail risk for markets.
Analysts, led by Henry Allen, say there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade: a major influenza pandemic killing more than two million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. (The current COVID-19 pandemic has killed 443,765 globally already.)
If the time frame is two decades, then there is a 56% chance of one of these disasters occurring, the analysts say, based on various studies and risk assessments. Earthquakes were omitted from the numbers on the grounds that they are more local events.
The solar flare possibility is one rarely discussed, perhaps because the last severe one was in 1859, but the Deutsche Bank team finds that to be more likely than a major global war.
That’s pretty optimistic. I don’t think anyone can really predict the probability of a major global war under these new conditions.
Geopolitics is in uncharted territory.
Solar weather, on the other hand, can be predicted from past behavior.
“There could be major power outages as electrical power grids are disrupted, which in turn would have knock-on effects throughout the economy as critical infrastructure is unable to be run properly. Lives could be lost if it impacted hospitals and medical care. Communications would be disrupted, many payment systems would be dysfunctional, and GPS [Global Positioning System] satellites would face extensive interference, to the detriment of all the individuals and industries that rely on accurate location services, not least aircraft,” says the cheery report.
Citing one study that assessed the odds of a major solar flare happening are 12% in a decade, that means there is a 40% chance it will take place in the next 40 years. Might want to keep a few spare batteries around.
Another point made is that these major events tend to have ripple effects as well, just as the current COVID-19 crisis has led to fraying ties between the U.S. and China.
Normies, on the other hand, suffer from aptly-named normalcy bias.
This is the tendency to assume that things will continue as normal – war will not break out, the government will not shut everything down for no reason, the blacks will not riot, etc.
We have seen that we can no longer afford to think that way.
This solar flare problem is something that will probably happen this century. It’s a yearly roulette. Nothing is being done to prepare for this, as far as I can tell.
I doubt that the politicians even understand the difference between this, which is based on repeated past observations, and the global warming cult, which is based on random charts (that they present new every few years after the previous ones are proved wrong). Solar flares have not been a problem yet, only because dependence on electrical and telecommunications systems is still a pretty new thing.
So they will continue to do nothing to prepare, until it happens.
Basically, if there were a nuclear war tomorrow, the American government does not even have enough iodine pills in stock for the population. It would cost a few cents per person to do this, but it is not done, so very many people would die needlessly from radiation poisoning.
That is how much they prepare for things.
The government also did not even have a real quarantine strategy, with fast travel restrictions, stockpiled masks and supermarket delivery logistics. They did a weird lockup and everyone got corona anyway. That turned out to be just the flu, but if it had turned out to be just super-smallpox, the government would have let everyone get that, too.
So, we need to get out of the normie mentality of things can never go wrong.
They already did.
We also do not need to do conspiritard boomer doomer prediction cults and panic clickbait. These have poisoned ideological media as a genre, to the point that reasonable risk analysis is only published in financial publications.
So, with all of that said, allow me to float a theory.
There is no way for the West to go into this quarantine society without falling hugely behind the Russia-China bloc, unless it attacks them in some way.
But nuclear war is lose-lose.
So, one of the few remaining options would be to force them to also go into quarantine mode, by releasing a real virus.
Not a weak sauce cold flu, mind you, but a real medieval-style population reducing plague, like an optimized smallpox.
When things get real, real fast
If we were already under a flu hoax travel lockdown, we could completely avoid catching it, and it would only be their problem.
To put this another way – if you wanted to seriously bioweapon the China-Russia bloc, you would first need to do a flu hoax on yourself.
And, that is what has been done.
If there is any appetite for biological warfare, that would be the time to do it, and if there is any appetite for general warfare, a biological attack is one of the only strategies that doesn’t immediately proceed to the nuclear lose-lose scenario.
So, if we get a “second wave” of closures, this would be a necessary pre-move for biological warfare. It would be reasonable to consider that to be a very high risk period for global conflict.
