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I don’t really have much comment on the Gaza ceasefire other than to say it won’t work. It will probably work for a couple weeks, but it is never going to make it into the stage where Hamas releases the rest of the hostages, because the Jews are simply not going to agree to fully exit Gaza.
If I had to guess, I would suspect that Trump told Bibi “sign the thing and give me a bit of a leash and we can deal with this later.”
Trump has massive Israeli and Jewish support, and doesn’t have that because he is going to free Palestine.
It is funny that Antony Blinken and Joe Biden are claiming credit for this ceasefire while Israel is saying Donald Trump did it.
RT:
Israel and Hamas have finalized and signed a ceasefire agreement to end 15 months of conflict in Gaza, Al Arabiya wrote on Thursday, citing sources. The deal, brokered by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, includes a 42-day truce and a prisoner exchange.
Earlier on Thursday, Israel delayed a cabinet vote on the ceasefire deal, blaming Hamas for reneging on parts of the agreement. The militant group has rejected the claims.
According to Al Arabiya, the Israeli delegation left the Qatari capital Doha “after overcoming the differences regarding the agreement,” noting that the agreement “almost collapsed” had it not been for the mediators.
It was agreed that Israel would reduce its raids on Gaza starting Friday evening, sources told the channel. Another dispute solved was Hamas’ demands regarding the names of senior Palestinian prisoners to be released from Israeli jails in the second phase of the deal.
The agreement is set to commence on Sunday, as confirmed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who expressed confidence in the truce’s initiation despite the last-minute issues. “It’s not exactly surprising that in a process and negotiation that has been this challenging and this fraught, you may get a loose end,” he said earlier Thursday. “We’re tying up that loose end as we speak.”
Some media have attributed the failure to ratify the agreement by Israel to opposition from key parties in Israel’s governing coalition. The Religious Zionism Party and its leader, Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have condemned the deal and threatened to quit if the Jewish state does not return to war after the first stage of the ceasefire.
Yeah.
The agreement was announced on Wednesday by US President-elect Donald Trump and subsequently confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The deal is expected to include three phases, each lasting 42 days.
During the first phase Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, children, and men over 50, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, alongside a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. Negotiations for the second phase, starting on day 16, aim to secure the release of all remaining Israeli captives, a permanent ceasefire, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. The third phase focuses on the return of bodies and Gaza’s reconstruction under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
There’s just simply no way Israel is going to completely withdraw from Gaza and let them rebuild under any circumstances, let alone while Hamas is still in charge.
Zero chance. At all.
I will bet my total reputation on that. Screenshot this. There is no way.
My one caveat would be if the Netanyahu government totally collapses, in which case it would then be possible. Include this part in the screenshot, because there is a nonzero chance of that happening.
Israel is going to get back some hostages, pull back a bit, stay cool for some number of days, then they are going to claim Hamas is violating the ceasefire deal. They are not going to get to the second “phase” of the ceasefire because there is no way Hamas is going to release the remaining hostages without guarantees and Israel will not agree to these guarantees.
Frankly, I think this is all so obvious that the discussion around it is stupid.
You understand that if this ceasefire was implemented, it would amount to a total Hamas victory and a complete surrender by Israel. Their number one stated mission objective was “destroy Hamas.” Their obvious goal, which was not plainly stated by Netanyahu but stated by people in his government, was to ethnically cleanse and annex Gaza in total.
Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is a personal friend of Bibi, said that the Palestinians would be completely removed from the land and Jews would come in to build luxury condos.
Jared Kushner is advocating for land theft and developing beach property in #Gaza, the stolen Palestinian land! pic.twitter.com/UUSSWxCuQl
— Rania (@umyaznemo) March 20, 2024
This plan is now completely off the table? Because why?
Israel is winning majorly, across the board. They stopped Hezbollah and they destroyed Assad and annexed huge parts of Syria. What reason do they have to surrender to Hamas?
PR concerns?
That wouldn’t make any sense, because it would be completely impossible for Israel’s PR to get any worse. We’ve watched these Jews slaughter tens of thousands of innocent children, watched them starve people to death. They have reached the total bottom of the PR ladder.
I stand by all of my original predictions from fall of 2023 with regards to this situation. Everything I said then has developed exactly as you would expect it to.
Again, note that I said at that time that if Bibi is removed, everything changes. He has had all of these cases against him, all of these investigations, all of these protests and so on. It’s not impossible, but I’ve never felt comfortable predicting that it would or would not happen.
Frankly, I don’t like making predictions at all, and I only do it when something is very obvious to me, such as this Jew thing or Trump “winning” the 2024 election.
