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Iranian media just started rebroadcasting the anthem of the Iran-Iraq War due to the state of alert imposed in Iran pic.twitter.com/9r5OO9CjzV
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) August 2, 2024
This seems good.
The U.S. military will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Friday, as Washington seeks to bolster defenses following threats from Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
The U.S. is bracing for Iran to make good on its vow to respond to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh two days ago in Tehran – one in a series of killings of senior figures in the Palestinian militant group as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza rages.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had approved sending additional Navy cruisers and destroyers– which can shoot down ballistic missiles– to the Middle East and Europe.
It is also sending an additional squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East.
Yeah, this is getting… we’re getting into escalation mode here, huh?
LIVE: @DepPentPressSec Sabrina Singh holds a news briefing at the Pentagon. https://t.co/CtZbYi80xo
— Department of Defense 🇺🇸 (@DeptofDefense) August 2, 2024
I know that everyone keeps saying “nothing ever happens,” but the events since the debate seem to bring that assertion into question.
The Israeli war with Lebanon is definitely happening, and Iran is definitely going to be involved in that war, and Israel is definitely going to be directly bombing Iran more.
The basic question is: can the US manage a war against the entire Middle East?
We know they can bomb Iran, and destroy their cities, which is the response you get when you ask about a war with Iran: “We’ll just carpet bomb them and send them back 100 years.”
The issue that I’ve taken with that assertion is… Iran has been aware since at least the invasion of Iraq that the US was planning to carpet bomb Tehran. And these people are not stupid. So it seems to me that if they know that is the opening move of the US, they’ve probably set things up to respond to that.
One would have to assume that they have a lot of caves and tunnels with a lot of drones. They also have the ability t0 activate militias using tunnels and drones all over the region. The US does not really have a response to “people running around in tunnels firing drones.” There just isn’t really a conventional military response to that, other than sending in ground troops to chase down the people in the tunnels.
We’ve seen what a disaster the Israeli operation in Gaza has been for the IDF. The IDF is effectively and de facto a branch of the US military, given that they have access to all of the technologies and training, and further, it’s obvious that US Special Forces are active in Gaza. So, this whole “tunnels and cheap rockets and drones” system is a way to resist the US military more or less indefinitely. Now, imagine all of southern Lebanon being a Gaza, having Gazas all through Iran, plus of course the Gaza in Yemen, and then various different Gazas in Iraq and Syria.
The point is: what Hamas is doing is working. Israel keeps losing soldiers and there is no real evidence they are any closer to “destroying” Hamas than they were on day 1 of the invasion.
When you look at things in those terms, leveling Beirut and Tehran don’t really mean very much, because the Iron Dome doesn’t work, and these fighters can continue to fire rockets and drones into Israel until you figure out a way to get them out of the tunnels.
You feel me?
The common wisdom was “oh Israel can just ‘take Gaza'” – ten months later, that hasn’t happened. And Gaza should be easy, compared to South Lebanon, let alone Iran.
The only obvious solution to the war that the Jews and the Americans are planning, that I can see, is to deploy massive ground forces to actually go into the tunnels. Otherwise these groups will not be destroyed, and because of these technological developments in rocket and drone technology, if they are not destroyed, they can just keep attacking.
A Fire You Don’t Want to Start
The other problem that I see here for these people is that if you attack Iran, and Iran responds by starting fires all over the Middle East through this militia network they’ve built, Sunnis are going to start saying “well, we should do something too” and start overthrowing governments and so on.
People who plan these wars don’t really know very much about the constitution of Arabs and Middle Eastern people generally. They are not really opposed to war, unless they are very rich (at which point they get soft). The US has prevented constant wars by making sure very rich people control the governments of the region. But the young men are also likely to risk their lives, and they are pretty good at organizing into units that operate in a cohesive way without top-down organization.
If the whole region is set on fire, all bets are off. And I see no way to go through with this planned war with Iran without setting the whole region on fire. Then the US has this single goal of protecting the Jews, like some kind of Tower Defense game… it just all looks to be very poorly planned.
