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I am primarily concerned about domestic social issues. That is what I prefer to write about. Primarily, I hate women and like to share that message of hate with the world. However, for many years now I have been compelled to write about geopolitics because there is so much gibberish flooding the public space regarding these issues that it appears to be a moral obligation for me to add my piece.
I am all too well aware that I am the only English speaking person who can say anything intelligent about China. But I never viewed myself as the sole voice of reason on the Ukraine-Russia situation. Yet, I go away for a few weeks and the public conversation on the right degrades into garbled madness. Following a wild series of confusing events, there are a few quick things I want to put out there and hopefully it will clear things up.
The first and most obvious thing to note is that it was very easy for the American right to be pro-Russia, or at least anti-Ukraine, when the cancer-riddled old coot Joe Brandon was in charge of the US government and serving as the face of Ukrainemania. Right wingers, while sometimes critical of Trump, do not view him as villainous in the way they viewed the rotting corpse Brandon as villainous.
Unfortunately, nothing has changed insofar as the Ukraine-Russia situation is concerned now that Trump is president. Despite a very funny scene in the Oval Office in which Trump berated the Jewish dwarf dictator of the Ukraine, the US military has continued arming the country and has continued to support NATO escalating the conflict.
Following along with the theater that took place during the Zelensky meeting, Trump has used rhetoric to give the impression there has been some substantive change in US war policy. Biden publicly committed to the idea that the war would never end, saying constantly that the war should go on forever no matter the cost, while Trump is publicly saying the war should end at some point in the (near?) future. However, even while Biden was saying “endless war forever,” his own officials were acknowledging that it would have to end at some point. Just so, while Trump says he wants it to end, his own officials are saying that sure, it will have to be sometime, but who really knows.
Aside from the change in rhetoric, Trump has vaguely attempted to start a peace process, which Biden refused to even entertain. So, I should give credit where due there. But there is as of yet no reason to believe the peace process will go anywhere.
It’s a bit disappointing for me personally. Although I obviously supported Trump over Kamala, in the run-up to the “election,” I was overwhelmingly negative about the whole thing, and repeatedly stressed the point that though Trump would win, it was only because he was allowed to win (given that we know for a fact that US elections can be rigged), which meant that he wasn’t likely to do much of significance. I did say that I expected him to end the Ukraine war (even if only to free up resources for more adventurism in the Middle East). It now appears that my optimism, as it were, might have been misplaced. (Of course, on the other end, to also give credit where due, he is at least pushing back against Bibi in ways which could turn out to be substantive. Though I’m not really holding my breath on that, I stand by what I wrote last week about the possibility that Trump could move to try to oust Bibi. I also stand by my instinct that it probably won’t work.)
The important thing to understand is that Trump’s talk of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is complete bullshit and every serious person is aware of this. It is not a starting point for peace negotiations, it is not anything at all other than a tactic to try to convince deeply stupid or totally uninformed people that Russia is not committed to peace and is rejecting an olive branch. It is not an olive branch. If there was a deal on the table and Zelensky and Putin had a meeting set up with a draft proposal and Trump was asking for a week’s ceasefire, okay, but asking for an open-ended ceasefire and then whining when Putin refuses to agree to let the Ukraine rearm for no reason is just childish and dumb.
Russia’s demands have been the same since before they invaded the Ukraine. In substance, they’ve been consistent since the Ukraine, backed by the US, started the war in 2014, but the specifics have not changed since February of 2022 when Putin gave a speech outlining the purpose of the invasion and the goals that would have to be achieved before there could be peace between the two states. There is no room for confusion about what Russia is demanding, and the single most important demand is a serious, carved in stone agreement that the Ukraine will never join NATO. This includes not only a ban on officially joining NATO, but also a ban on being a de facto NATO state through a treaty that does the same thing without official NATO membership. (The current chatter coming from the State Department and from Germany is to make the Ukraine a de facto NATO member without actually calling it that.)
Trump is not offering Russia a peace deal. He is demanding that Russia, which is winning the war, agree to stop fighting so that the US and its allies can rearm and fortify the Ukraine. This is like if a losing football team in the fourth quarter demanded that the game be paused so everyone can rest up and then come back and finish the game tomorrow. It is completely ridiculous.
If Trump were in charge of the United States, and it might be childish to suggest he is but if he were, he could offer a peace deal that meets Russia’s terms and end the war immediately. If there were a serious peace deal, there would be no need for a ceasefire, because you would have a cessation of hostilities.
Russia is not demanding anything crazy. There would be nothing shameful in simply doing the deal. It would not make Trump look weak or whatever it is people suggest he is concerned about. Trump has spent months now claiming that Putin is planning to conquer the entirety of the Ukraine, and I can tell you as a matter of fact, no one in Russia is going to be mad about Trump signing a peace deal and then going around saying he stopped Russia from marching on Galicia and forcing everyone to use correct Russian grammar and drink Russian vodka (instead of that fruity crap they drink).
I said from the beginning that when the US finally surrenders they will say “we stopped Putin from taking all of the Ukraine,” and that is clearly what Trump will claim and that is fine.
But there is no other room for a “win.” Maybe Russia will cede some of the territory that they’ve officially claimed but don’t currently occupy. I would assume they would do that and the Kremlin seems to have indicated as much. But that can’t be any kind of a big public “win” because no one in the West knows or cares where those lines are.
Russia doing a big bombing campaign this week is sending a signal that they are not playing a game and they are not interested in this ridiculous kiddie nonsense that Trump is pushing. Trump is trying to bully them by claiming they look bad for not agreeing to a ceasefire that allows the sickening pervert Americans and those German sickos to come in and fortify towns again, to ship in more weapons, to train soldiers, and so on.
Trump is offering nothing at all. In part that is because there is nothing he can offer other than the deal that has always been on the table. I have no idea how this is going to play long term with his own supporters. Trump is now taking a position not qualitatively different than that of Joe Biden on the conflict and it’s unclear if his supporters are going to notice that. Probably, if you combine this with things like Dan Bongino and that odious Indian coming out and saying the Epstein suicide was on the up and up, and the ongoing discontent with Trump’s support for the Gaza genocide, Trump is probably going to be facing some pretty serious negativity in the coming weeks and months. The euphoria over the barrage of toothless, symbolic executive orders is probably wearing off.
It seems to me that Trump has enough problems with being perceived as a warmonger and if he has the ability, ending the Ukraine war would be a very easy win for his image, even if it isn’t a “win” in the other sense that he often uses that word.
Issuing a series of threats seems very ill-advised and is definitely not going to lead to any positive outcome for Trump or anyone else.
He can escalate, of course. He can send in US troops to fight Russians. He has that ability. But is that what he wants? If not, then threats are not useful, because Russia is not going to respond to threats. I don’t think they will get mad about them, but they will issue statements about how Trump is very emotional, which just seems embarrassing for Trump. If he decides to escalate the war, then he goes down as the guy who started World War III in the face of the most obvious peace deal imaginable, with the narrative being that he did it because he was unable to control his emotions.
He campaigned on saying Joe Biden was right about Israel-Palestine but just wasn’t extreme enough. Everyone knew that was his position. However he now does seem to be bothered by the fact that all of his supporters, save whatever evangelical boomers are still around, view him as a puppet of Netanyahu who is personally responsible for a genocide. It’s possible he can’t get out of that, as he actually is just totally controlled by Israel. But if he can, why not take the PR win and end the Ukraine war? Why go around spewing gibberish that no adult takes seriously?
For the record, I take Trump at his word that he wants to have a legacy as a peacemaker, and I think if he was a dictator, in complete control of the executive branch of the US government, he would end these wars. I am not against him as a person, and I think people who portray him as being secretly ideologically pro-war are not very serious people. The problem is that his own opinions are totally irrelevant, the only thing that matters being his actions, and all of his actions thus far have shown that he’s no more anti-war than Joe Biden.
It’s great that he’s complained about Bibi and said it’s sad Palestinians are being slaughtered and starved. But Biden also said that. His rhetoric on the Ukraine is less deranged than Biden’s, but his policies are the same. And it’s pretty much the same across the board. It’s great he’s talking about a new Iran Nike deal, but Biden also talked about that. There’s nothing new here, and it’s kind of hilarious that after he appointed Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State, anyone thought there would be anything new.
What is much more hilarious is that the Trump administration’s attacks on the freedom of speech make Biden look like a hardcore civil libertarian. There is a bill in Congress that will put people in prison for ten years if they boycott Israel. I had a conversation with AI about the bill. Laws are very long and purposefully confusing, but AI is able to break this stuff down. (Obviously, you need to check it for accuracy, but I’ve found it is now very accurate when it comes to simply analyzing long documents.) I asked if this bill became law and I was in a store and there was a bar of Israeli soap and a bar of Jordanian soap, and I bought the Jordanian soap because I am against the genocide in Gaza if I could be prosecuted. The AI said no. I think I asked if I owned a company, and my company chose to buy the Jordanian soap because I am against the genocide if I could be prosecuted, and the AI said it was possible I could be prosecuted and face up to ten years in prison. The bill has been tabled, but according to the media, this was done single-handedly by Matt Gaetz and Republicans want to bring it back. (Gaetz pointed out that the bill seems to imply every American is legally obligated to buy Israeli products. Again, no one understands the way these laws are written, but in my example above, it seems possible that if my company chose to buy the Jordanian soap, even if I did it arbitrarily, and not because I oppose the Gazan genocide, I could be accused of having hateful reasons for the decision, and thrown in prison.)
We all love Trump. But there is a lot of stuff like this going on that is really not great. I’m glad Elon got thrown under the bus, but compared to some of this other stuff, whatever the hell he was up to seems like small potatoes. Stopping wars and bringing back freedom of speech were two of the most prominent things in the Trump campaign, and rhetoric aside, we are so far getting the opposite on both counts.
But hey. We hope for the best.
Ultimately, we need to not lose sight of why the American people elected Trump in the first place: to protect women’s sports.
Trump’s foreign policy might be the same as Biden’s, he will likely be the president to implement the first hate speech laws in American history, but none of that matters much in light of the fact that we’ve gotten rid of the radical gender ideology that was causing female swimmers to be denied their sports medals.
