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Daily Mail
January 4, 2014
In the event, more than one million arrived in almost a decade.
Academics who said Eastern European migrants had made a substantial contribution to the public finances were guilty of ‘schoolboy errors’, it was claimed last night.
A report by Christian Dustmann and Tommaso Frattini, two researchers from University College London (UCL), was given blanket coverage by the BBC when it was published last month, and hailed as proof that immigration has a positive economic impact on Britain.
But last night their study was condemned as ‘fatally flawed’ by one of the country’s most senior statisticians.
Mervyn Stone, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at UCL, said the study was ‘obviously driven to make the case it claims to have made’.
He added: ‘If any honest statistician had made the same painstaking but assumption-based calculations, the last word he/she would have used to describe the estimates is “precise” – unless exhaustion had affected judgment.
‘Most of the underlying crude assumptions that the all-embracing approach has been obliged to make have not been subject to sensitivity tests that might have been made if the study had not been so obviously driven to make the case it claims to have made.’
Prof Stone and statistician Nigel Williams point out flaws in the paper’s findings in new research published by the Civitas think-tank.
The independent analysis accuses Dustmann and Frattini of using questionable methods to process the data, having an ‘inadequate understanding’ of the data and ‘significantly overstating their case’.
Small changes to the ‘large assumptions’ about benefit claims the report was based on could make the positive contribution supposedly made by migrants disappear.
Prof Dustmann was one of the academics behind the prediction that only 13,000 migrants from Poland and other Eastern European nations would come after controls were dropped in 2004.
In the event, more than one million arrived in almost a decade.
