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Terrence Hill
Occidental Observer
January 5, 2016
All births matter — and White births are holding steady. While the end game is anyone’s guess, new data makes mincemeat of the old propaganda narrative that Whites in the United States face inevitable demise in the near future. This particular propaganda line–churned out by our brutal anti-White elite on a daily basis — is increasingly untenable.
The final data for the year 2014 has just been published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Births: Final Data for 2014.” [1] It shows a continuation of trends that have tracked falling total fertility rates for Black, Hispanic and Native Americans. The demographic data for these groups continue to show a steady erosion. White and Asian total fertility rates are up, with the Asian total fertility rate showing remarkable volatility, but still showing significant decline over a multi-year period.
Keep in mind that total fertility rates estimate the number of children per women over a woman’s lifetime. A total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 is considered replacement rate. Also keep in mind that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) includes the peoples of the Middle East and the Subcontinent as White. This will not greatly affect the figures for non-Hispanic White because — while data are difficult to attain for these groups — Indians in the United States are known to have a birthrate significantly below Whites and East Asians, and the birth rate of Middle Eastern peoples in Europe and North America is only slightly above replacement. Given the modest numbers of both these groups in the United States (though growing), and the lower Indian total fertility rate, the data amalgamated under the Non-Hispanic White category is an largely accurate measure of European-American TFR.
Here are the results of the 2014 CDC data without any adjustments:
The White TFR rose from 1.751 in 2013 to 1.762 in 2014 — a rise of 0.628%
The Hispanic TFR fell from 2.149 in 2013 to 2.130 in 2014 — a decline of 0.884 %
The Black TFR fell from 1.881in 2013 to 1.873 in 2014 — a decline of 0.425%
The Asian TFR rose from 1.681 in 2013 to 1.715 in 2014 — a rise of 2.022%
Native Am TFR fell from 1.334 in 2013 to 1.288 in 2014 — a decline of 3.448%
Ranking the 2014 TFR from highest to lowest gives the following list,
Hispanic 2.130
Black 1.873
White 1.762
Asian 1.715
Native Am 1.288
Demographic change moves at glacial speed, so it is helpful to drive a stake in the ground and measure change over the span of years. If we look at the rate of change from 2007 to the present, we see how the longer term picture clarifies.
From 2007 to 2014 the Total Fertility Rate,
Fell for Non-Hispanic Whites from 1.868 to 1.762 a decline of 5.674%
Fell for Hispanics from 2.995 to 2.130, a decline of 28.881%
Fell for Non-Hispanic Blacks from 2.133 to 1.873, a decline of 12.189%
Fell for Asian and Pacific Islanders from 2.038 to 1.715, a decline of 15.848%
Fell for American Indians from 1.866 to 1.288, a decline of 30.975%
That means that Hispanics declined 400% faster than Whites, Blacks declined almost 115% faster than Whites, Asians declined almost 180% faster than Whites, Native Americans declined 445% faster than Whites.
The Hispanic birth rate is at replacement rate only and still falling. Because 2012 is the last year that the CDC gives figures for Hispanics of Mexican origin, a back-of-the-envelope calculation is that the 2012 TFR for Mexicans in the United States at 2.083 is likely to land somewhere between 1.90 and 1.98. This is almost certainly a population group now in demographic decline, though total numbers will still rise due to legal and illegal immigration.
The TFR for Blacks continue to decline, year on year. While this is a trend of long standing, the Black TFR may have been pushed further down due to the Great Recession. While a rise in unemployment is often accompanied by a lower TFR there is evidence that the last recession has affected Blacks and Hispanics to a greater extent than Whites and that further economic dislocation would again accelerate this process with no perceptible upward adjustment in the event of better economic conditions. This is partly because both Blacks and Hispanics are currently experiencing a bulge in the child bearing cohort, and once this cohort puts off childbearing due to economic difficulties and then moves into the upper age brackets, the damage cannot be reversed. [2]
Further downward pressure on the TFR is in the pipeline for Blacks and Hispanics. As discussed in an earlier post, there is reason to be believe that the free birth control offered by Obamacare will have a disproportionately downward pressure on those groups with higher out of wedlock births. Blacks clock in a 70.9% of out of wedlock births, Hispanics at 52.9%, White at 29.2% and Asians at 16.4%. While not likely affecting Whites and Asian TFR to a significant degree, Obamacare and another recession may result in far lower numbers yet.
Asian demographics need further analysis. It’s important not to take figures from a single year, and spin out a long term scenario. Steve Sailer did precisely this, when the CDC released “Births: Preliminary Data for 2014.” While Sailer offers excellent insight and is always willing to bravely buck the propaganda line of our elites, he overshot the mark in his prediction regarding Asian population growth in the United States. In a VDare article, “Here Comes the Asian Age—Births to US Asians up 6% in One Year” he states, “Now we seem to be entering a new era, in which the big winners appear likely to be Asians.”
The data do not support this. First, Sailer misses the fact that in 2013 Asians in the United States saw a dramatic drop in the TFR of 5.001%. Then in 2014 Asians had an increase in the TFR of 2.022%. Looking over the long term from 2007 to 2014 we can see that the Asian TFR fell by 15.848%, over three times greater than the decline of the White TFR. Asians in the U.S. are well below replacement, and globally, Asians, particularly East Asians, face catastrophic low TFR numbers. It is more likely that the Asian population in the United States will grow only by increased immigration, and the Asian TFR in the United States with time will fall in line with East Asian figures around the globe.
Why then the bump in Asian births for 2014? There are no reliable data to explain this. However, an educated guess is that the Obama administration has been fast-tracking visas and this has led to an increase in Asians, particularly Chinese, attending American universities. Because these students are in a highly fertile age cohort, they have more children than the Asian population at large. Also the children born to these foreign visa holders are given American citizenship at birth, and therefore counted in the “births” statistics, which are then folded into the analysis of the Asian population estimates in the United States. A similar bump has occurred in New Zealand for exactly this reason. [3] This temporary bump would have a modest impact on the TFR, and is unlikely to be maintained even if the Asian visa holders stay in the United States. It only reinforces the obvious — it is not a high TFR of non-Whites that will shape our future, but rather, continued and relentless immigration.
This data shatter the bad news propaganda that has been deployed against our people for at least a generation by our elites. As the progenitors of the Industrial Revolution, and as the torch bearers of creativity on one hand, and the rule of law in the other, Whites have globalized the world and raised the living standards of everyone, everywhere. Thus Whites were the first to undergo a reduced TFR. Asians around the world are now experiencing the same thing. Slowly, this revolution is hitting even those areas of the world with lower IQs. A falling TFR is not a White thing. It is global — with the obvious exception of Black Africa.
Our hostile elites manipulate highest levels of government to pursue the displacement of White people. The goal is clear: to ethnically cleanse the United States of the White populations that gave it birth and that still maintain its economy and culture. Immigration is a weapon our elites use to reshape the demographic destiny of our country. A key part of this program of White displacement is to convince Whites that immigration does not matter: that Whites are going to disappear because of low fertility, and that we all should simply give up and stop fighting the further inundation of peoples from around the world into our traditional homelands. Indeed we should be grateful for the invaders because immigration is the only thing that will save the U.S.
This data trump those propaganda lies.
A final note: The Occidental Observer was the first site—on the internet or published in print—to discuss and analyze the rapid demographic collapse in the United States of the non-White TFR relative to the steady White TFR. After two consecutive reports on this site, numerous other academic and news sites have now acknowledged the import of the CDC figures and how this will shred current demographic predictions. This belated recognition includes mainstream journalists, academics, bloggers, and fellow dissidents on the right.[4] Even more encouraging, it is clear that the Occidental Observer is read on the sly by many of our own people in elite positions. Google search results alone guarantee our prominence on vital topics, but the repetition of the ideas on this site clearly illustrate how these ideas first aired here on the Occidental Observer circulate broadly— albeit without acknowledgement or credit. As the candidacy of Donald Trump suggests, our ideas are getting a hearing, and are often repackaged and retailed in new and surprising ways.
Remember, you read it first here, on the Occidental Observer. Stay tuned.
- http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf
- http://www.theroot.com/articles/culture/2014/11/birth_rates_and_the_recession_has_a_black_generation_been_wiped_out.html . This article draws on the following study: September 29, 2014, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1408975111 PNAS October 14, 2014 vol. 111 no.41 14734-14739
- http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11433861
- http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/women-are-having-fewer-kids-and-demographers-dont-know-why/article/2549445; http://www.unomaha.edu/news/2015/01/fertility.php; http://dailycaller.com/2015/03/19/no-hispanic-surge-on-the-horizon/; http://www.thephora.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-102747.html
