Elon Offers $97.4 Billion for OpenAI

The real value of OpenAI collapsed with the release of DeepSeek. The company is going to have to effectively start from scratch, getting rid of everything other than their weights and basing their new code on the open source DeepSeek model.

With the release of DeepSeek, the markets mostly responded by thinking the value of Nvidia had dropped massively, but in the longer run, Nvidia is going to keep making these chips regardless. They were overheated for sure, but DeepSeek still needs the compute capacity.

Right now, the free version of DeepSeek is basically unusable because they don’t have the compute capacity necessary for tens of millions of people to be using the app. The fact that the model can run independently on much less hardware doesn’t mean they don’t need the more powerful GPUs to scale it.

I guess the thinking would be that the Chinese are going to continue to shrink the model, to the point where huge, complex models can easily be run off of a normal $2,000 gaming GPU. That might even be possible now, from what I’ve been reading about people setting up local DeepSeek builds. But still, there need to be huge compute centers for companies to run their apps, and Nvidia is going to be making all of that.

Meanwhile, what is the point of OpenAI? I spent an entire week with ChatGPT and DeepSeek open, feeding them the same prompts to check the output, and DeepSeek is so much better, it’s like some kind of sick joke.

DeepSeek is way less censored, even though it has carried over some of the politically correct censorship from OpenAI.

Can OpenAI be a multi-billion dollar company based on the fact that it will claim trillions died at Tiananmen Square? How much of the global economy is based on people asking AI about this event?

The Guardian:

Elon Musk escalated his feud with OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman on Monday. The billionaire is leading a consortium of investors that announced it had submitted a bid of $97.4bn for “all assets” of the artificial intelligence company to OpenAI’s board of directors.

The startup, which operates ChatGPT, has been working to restructure itself away from its original non-profit status. OpenAI also operates a for-profit subsidiary, and Musk’s unsolicited offer could complicate the company’s plans. The Wall Street Journal first reported the proposed bid.

If Sam Altman and the present OpenAI, Inc. Board of Directors are intent on becoming a fully for-profit corporation, it is vital that the charity be fairly compensated for what its leadership is taking away from it: control over the most transformative technology of our time,” said Marc Toberoff, the attorney representing the investors.

Altman posted his reaction on X shortly after the news broke, saying, “no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.” Musk famously bought Twitter in 2022 for $44bn and renamed it X. Musk responded to that post, saying, “Swindler.”

Musk was a co-founder of OpenAI but left the company in 2019 and started his own AI company called xAI. Over the past several years, he’s tussled with Altman over the direction of the company. He sued OpenAI over the company’s re-structuring plans last year, dropped the suit, then re-filed it.

Elon just makes shit up, and he puts this stuff out to pump his own stock.

But he probably could make this deal.

Again, the entire GPT model is going to have to be rebuilt based on DeepSeek, and then you have the fact that in another six months, China is likely to release a new model, which OpenAI will also have to copy.

Western companies made the decision to assume they would be monopolies forever, to give up on innovation, to replace their entire engineering staff with Indians, so now they’re in a situation where their entire business model is going to be based on rushing to copy stuff released by the Chinese, while talking about “we are fundamental to the economy because of Winnie the Pooh cartoons.”

Is that really a sustainable business model?

If I was invested in OpenAI, I would be demanding we get this money from Elon. I’d take it and then go dump it in Chinese companies. This seems really obvious.

Tesla is viable because the US and EU are going to be blocking the import of Chinese EVs forever, but that model of protectionism does not work for open source software.