Motivated Reasoning and World War III Analysis

There is something of a troubling pattern in the various analyses of the emerging global conflict between the US/Israel and their vassals and China, Russia, Iran, et al.: every analysis appears to predict the triumph of the preferred party of the person making the analysis. Everyone who supports the global Jewish/homosexual movement claims America will win, while those opposed to this movement argues in favor of an inevitable American defeat.

Of course, you expect this sort of thing, everywhere. “I hope my side wins, but they probably won’t” is not a natural position for a human to take. In most such cases, a person intruded upon with that thought will either deny it, and claim, regardless of evidence, that their own side will win, or they will switch sides.

However, in most conflict analysis, you have some levity, with some individuals attempting to take a realist view outside of their own personal interests. In this current situation, I know of no one of any relevance in the sphere of analysis who is entertaining the idea that they side they support may lose the conflict. This is not simply the case with various commentators in the mainstream and independent media, but goes all the way down to individual commentators.

Having observed this situation, and tried to analyze the analysis, my conclusion is that the global situation is so complex and convoluted, with so many different variables, that any sort of algebraic analysis is completely impossible. Therefore, everyone looking at the situation has nowhere to go but with their own motivated reasoning.

The only thing you can say definitively is that the premise inherent in the arguments from Empire-supporters is necessarily false: these people claim, in so many words, that the United States and its Jews are an eternal empire, which will last forever. This is objectively false. No empire lasts forever, and the US-Jewish Rainbow Empire will not be an exception to that rule. Further, the US is currently exhibiting every indicator associated with an empire on the brink of collapse, from internal decadence to military overreach. Further, from a Christian perspective, God wins in the end. However, none of those things necessarily means that the US will not manage to defeat Iran, collapse the Russian government, and force the capitulation of an isolated China.

I am certainly of the opinion that the US empire will fall. That is not a new disclosure. However, I am also of the belief that it is important to constantly interrogate my own thoughts and opinions. Having done so, I am left with an admission that there are no guarantees, but nonetheless, there is no logical reason for me to stop believing that assuming I receive my four score and ten, I will live to see this Evil Empire fall. Given that there is no objective data that can prove that my reasoning is incorrect, and given that my reasoning is logically sound insofar as the data I do have and my own ability to understand it, there would be no rational purpose in letting waver my faith in the victory of good over evil coming before the middle of the century.