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Andrew Anglin
Daily Stormer
December 3, 2016
We’ve got a potentially major happening coming up tomorrow in Italy.
Italy votes on Sunday in a constitutional referendum that, should there be a “no” vote, could trigger the departure of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Following Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president, and the Brexit vote in June, the poll in the Eurozone’s third largest economy is the latest political event in which anti-establishment forces could trigger international shockwaves.
While the formal topic of the referendum is landmark constitutional change, there are significant concerns about what a no vote could mean for the stability of Italy—which is sometimes seen as the biggest threat to the Eurozone’s future.
The country has the second biggest debt load in the single currency area at over 130 percent of GDP, and its banking sector is under significant stress with under-performing loans. Indeed, it is reported that up to eight of Italy’s troubled banks could risk failing if the referendum is lost, with any ensuing market panic discouraging investors from recapitalizing them.
Moreover, a strong no vote could have contagion beyond Italy, potentially whipping up fresh turmoil across Europe. This is especially so in the context of important elections on the horizon in countries from Austria, Netherlands, France and Germany in the next twelve months.
In a country that has seen more than 60 governments in the post-war era, the purported ambition of Renzi’s reforms is ushering in greater political stability. The prime minister’s argument is that more stable majorities in parliament, and the stronger government this facilitates, will enable reforms needed to enhance economic growth and reduce the country’s public debt.
Perhaps unwisely, however, Renzi (who has been prime minister for almost three years) has linked his personal future to the outcome of the ballot, asserting that he will resign if his reforms are rejected. Polls earlier this month indicated that the no side was around 5 percentage points ahead, although there has been a blackout of pre-referendum surveys since.
That Renzi appears to be on the backfoot reflects, in part, his declining political popularity, and continuing public angst over corruption, and continuing fragility of the economy with unemployment at around 12 percent. Indeed, GDP per head is now around less than in 1997 at constant prices: only Greece has fared worse in the Eurozone during this period.
Effectively, this will be a vote for or against the EU. If the oeople vote “no” – as the polls indicate they will – it will be a very serious blow to the Union, and will presumably lead to an exit from it in the not-too-distant future.
With it looking like Le Pen is going to screw the pooch in France, there is a whole lot riding on this. Italy is the third biggest economy in the EU, after Germany and France.
