NOTE: SITUATION OVER. PLEASE DISREGARD ALL OF THE BELOW. WE WILL LEAVE IT UP FOR THE HISTORICAL RECORD, BUT THE SITUATION IS SOLVED. SEE: Collapse of Russia Totally Canceled!?
(I’ll keep this post updated. I might start more posts, but I’ll link them here.)
FINAL TODAY UPDATE
Hey, sorry no updates. Until this update.
I’ve had stuff going on in real life, and I’ve also been monitoring this situation in Russia.
I’m going to write more tomorrow, and in the days to come, obviously.
Right now, I must say – it looks like Russia is doomed.
Prigozhin has agreed to negotiate with Lukashenko (Belarus leader), but I don’t see what they can negotiate. Wagner has killed Russian soldiers, so I don’t see how he can negotiate his way out of that. He controls Southern Russia now, that is clear.
Firstly: I do not think this is some fake thing. People are writing that in various places, and it seems to fit into various people’s worldview, but I just want to say that I don’t think that is what is happening.
You’ll remember my posts when Prigozhin first started attacking the Ministry of Defense. I didn’t want to talk about it. I told people I know in real life that it looked like he was planning a coup, and I was very concerned, but as a public matter, it did not seem appropriate to say that.
You all know that I’ve never lied about the fact that I am a shill for anyone at war with the Anal Empire, and I do have people listening, and it didn’t seem appropriate to spread rumors of a coup.
Now, obviously, the coup has happened, so I wish I would have said it, because maybe that would have gotten more eyes on the problem.
I generally agree with Prigozhin that Russia should have moved into total war mode, but this is a total disaster. And I have to remember that Prigozhin – however he was raised (which was Christian) – is half Jewish. Maybe I would have supported him taking over the country under other circumstances. Even given that he is half Jewish. But this is going to break Russia apart.
This is a really, really, really, really, really bad disaster. There is no way to cut it otherwise. This is very good for NATO, very good for Jews – whatever the outcome.
I don’t think Wagner can take Moscow. That just seems silly. But he does hold the Southern Command, and the problem is, now that he is apparently at war with Moscow, he is not going to protect the Ukraine line.
The war is almost certainly lost at this point, unless the FSB can assassinate him in like, the next 24 hours.
This changes the entire calculus for the world order, entirely.
I can’t really see a situation where Russia remains on the field. If Prigozhin takes the Kremlin and makes himself President, he can’t hold the country together. The Moslems in the south will break off, Siberia will probably break off, and the whole thing is just a mess.
He probably won’t take the country, and instead will hold the south for a while and then be assassinated.
But then Putin still has a very serious problem, as he has been made to look weak and ineffectual. Maybe he can resign, give the country over to Medvedev, and things will keep rolling – but that seems unlikely.
There are possibilities of a non-apocalyptic outcome here, but as a general matter, the situation is apocalyptic, and I think the outcome is going to be very, very bad for the people of earth, and good for the Jews.
China is in a very difficult position right now.
The whole world was just turned sideways. Everything good that was on the horizon is now in question.
That is just the facts.
5:45 AM EST
Well, Wagner is now in control of the Southern Command in Rostov. That is pretty clear.
🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺😉😉😉Prigozhin at the headquarters of the Southern Military District.
In the video, he is talking with Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Alekseev. pic.twitter.com/X4G5OTgWvB
— Theresa 🇳🇬🇷🇺 (@tretter50001) June 24, 2023
This is the translation:
He says he’s going to Moscow. There are reports that there are Wagner forces moving on Moscow.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
It’s interesting that Putin didn’t mention Prigozhin by name in the speech, while Prigozhin has also avoided mentioning Putin.
It might just be that they both know the other is the other most popular person in the country.
The idea they are cooperating in 12th dimensional black hole portal chess, as many popular accounts are reporting, seems relatively far out at this point. But there being some kind of negotiation between Putin and Prigozhin seems like it could be on the table.
I don’t know. Who the hell knows. There aren’t really experts on this to look to, and I’ve got no idea what is going on. I know that as soon as I saw that video of Prigozhin yelling in front of the corpses, it looked to me like he was going to do a coup, and the same people who said that was just disinformation are now saying this whole current scene is disinformation.
But, it looks like we’ll have a better view of things in a few hours.
I shall keep thee abreast.
2:25 AM EST
Quite frankly, as soon as I saw that video of Prigozhin yelling in front of a pile of corpses, I said “this guy is planning a coup.”
You know, he’s half Jewish.
After that, I kept my eyes open, but it did seem like there was a chance that the whole thing was total theater designed to mess with the Ukrainians/Americans.
Now, it appears shit has gotten real.
Prigozhin has declared a coup, and ordered men to march toward Rostov, the Russian city closest to the former Ukraine border.
This video is being shared of Russian military allegedly in a shootout with Wagner in or near Rostov.
He is supposedly now in control of the command headquarters in Rostov, which is a major Russian military installation. I don’t understand how he would have just seized that, but okay.
There is video of him there, and he says he’s now in command. Apparently, no one is challenging him, despite the fact there is an arrest warrant for him.
Apparently – at least, as far as anyone can tell – Prigozhin’s agenda here is only to capture and hold the military base in Rostov and force Putin to make him Minister of Defense. He is not actually trying to overthrow the government.
To be clear, Prigozhin is the second most popular person in Russia, second only to Putin.
As of right now, as I write, Putin has just given a speech declaring Prigozhin an enemy of the state.
There are tanks on the streets of Moscow for the first time since the 1990s.
Preceding this, in the nighttime on Friday, Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of bombing his guys. There are no videos of this, and it’s been concluded that is obviously fake. It would not make any sense. If Putin wanted Prigozhin out, he would just be assassinated. And if the MoD bombed Wagner without Putin’s permission, the head of the MoD would get assassinated (or at least arrested).
He is reporting that, and the New York Times is reporting that – Russian media hasn’t said that.
I never publicly said that I was worried about a coup, because that did not seem appropriate. But several people can confirm I said this in private, including prominent people. I mean, obviously I would have thought that, because I have a very good sense.
However… I would not have thought it would happen like this. Wagner would need a bigger force, or at least a more strategic ability to strike the Kremlin and arrest the current government. There are scenarios I can see where that would have been possible some time in the next 18 months, but this thing they are doing now is just wild.
It seems to me that there is still a possibility that this is all fake, that it is designed in order to get the Ukraine to try to push. The Putin speech definitely makes that a lot less likely. I think most likely, this is really happening, and it is a pretty big problem.
I’m not sure if Putin can just make a deal with Prigozhin if he’s already killed Russian soldiers. I think that might be a point of no return. (But it is also not clear that happened.)
That said – how is it possible that Putin would not have a guy around Prigozhin ready to kill him if given the order? You’d think he’d have to have a guy in place, right? I would think that would be standard KGB procedure regardless, let alone after he’d made all those videos attacking the military, after I was sitting here thinking “that guy looks like he’s planning a coup” – right?
There is nothing clear right now, but the Russian media is reporting all of this, Putin is giving speeches, we have videos of shootings.
Prigozhin might be on drugs or drunk. I don’t understand why else he would move like this. In my view, previously, he did have a decent chance for some kind of march on the Kremlin, but there is no way he is going to march from Rostov with 20,000 men. I mean, he doesn’t have enough guys to fight the cops, and he’s not made any overtures towards the military or the cops to side with him against Putin.
He’s not even talking about Putin, except to say that Putin is being deceived.
My general thought here is that this is real, but that Putin is going to make a deal. It’s also possible Putin knew about this or planned it himself for some reason.
I will keep you abreast.