This week in “not actually winning the border skirmish”…
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deadly war in Europe is on the brink of expanding outside of Ukraine as Kremlin officials alleged Thursday that there have been “acts of terrorism” in Moldova.
Moscow set its sights on Moldova last week when a Russian general said its goal was to gain “full control” over not only eastern Ukraine, but regions along its southern that sit above the Black Sea.
This would allow Russia to gain better access to Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway state in Moldova with sympathetic ties to Russia.
“We are alarmed by the escalation of tension in Transnistria, where in recent days there have been several incidents of shelling, blowing up social and infrastructure facilities,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday. “We regard these actions as acts of terrorism aimed at destabilizing the situation.”
Zakharova’s comments came after explosions were reported in the separatist region this week, one reportedly hitting the Ministry of State Security in the city of Tiraspol, the region’s capital.
A second target was reported Tuesday after radio antennas that broadcast Russian programs in Maiac, a town around seven miles from Moldova’s border with Ukraine, were struck down.
But despite a history of tense relations, Moldova and Transnistria have held a treaty agreement since 1992 and signs of a thawing Cold War mentality were evident even earlier this year.
As part of the 1992 peace treaty, Russia has maintained a presence in Transnistria with roughly 1,500 Russian troops stationed there as “peacekeepers.”
You see how they do “Kremlin alleges” and then admit to the shellings?
Look at the bizarre wording of this tweet from the Jews:
Mysterious explosions have taken place across Transnistria, a pro-Kremlin breakaway territory of Moldova, sparking fears that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may spill over to other countries in the region. https://t.co/qvcLWPFcaD
— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 29, 2022
Someone is doing the shelling, Don. It’s not the Romanians.
In fact, no one is actually willing to deny the Ukrainians are now attacking Transnistria. Most Ukrainian violence is blamed on Russians, but you can’t really do that here.
#Moldova Update:#Transnistrian President Krasnoselsky ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to "be ready for any scenario," but (likely falsely) denied reports that Transnistrian authorities are preventing men of fighting age from leaving the region.https://t.co/pMrnrNf7CO pic.twitter.com/YMKC42Zsrs
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) April 28, 2022
For those who don’t understand: Moldova is traditionally a part of Romania that was annexed by the USSR, and Russians were moved into the area. After the fall of the USSR, you had a small half Russian, half Romanian rump state. It couldn’t really be reintegrated into Romania because there were too many Russians living there and Romania didn’t want to deal with that while they were in the middle of their own crisis, so it has remained an “independent country” since the fall of the USSR. As stated, part of it is a Russian autonomous region with active Russian military.
The Russian region borders the Ukraine.
It’s a small territory, and there is no serious military there, so it’s just a soft target.
Russia pretty much has to defend that territory. The whole basis of this campaign – especially in terms of domestic consumption – is defending ethnic Russians living outside of the current borders of Russia.
I think at this point Russia probably plans to take Odessa, which would mean connecting directly to Transnistria in the long run, but they are in the middle of a very serious situation in the Donbass and there is no direct route to Transnistria established.
Without getting into the nitty-gritty, Russia isn’t currently even trying to take Mykolaiv, and a lot more of the Ukraine military is going to need to be wiped out before they even think about Odessa.
At this point, I would blow up some piece of civilian infrastructure in Lviv for every attack on civilian infrastructure in Transnistria, but hey – I’m not a military strategist.
Here’s the thing: Romania is an EU/NATO country, and they do not want the Ukraine attacking Moldova. The Romanian president of the official country of Moldova is saying the same thing as the president of Transnistria.
President Maia Sandu said after a meeting of Moldova’s Supreme Security Council on Tuesday that explosions in Transnistria for two days in a row “show that there are tensions between various forces” that are interested in destabilising the breakaway region, where Russian troops have been based since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“This makes the Transnistrian region vulnerable and poses risks to the Republic of Moldova,” Sandu said.
She convened the meeting after two blasts damaged Soviet-era radio masts in breakaway Transnistria, Reuters reported. Transnistrian authorities said a military unit was also targeted. No one was hurt, but two radio antennae that broadcast Russian radio were knocked out.
“We condemn any challenges and attempts to lure the Republic of Moldova into actions that could jeopardise peace in the country,” Sandu told media, adding that Chisinau “continues to insist on a peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict”.
The leader of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky said that “explosions have been heard in the country” and “naturally, an appropriate response to each challenge is following”.
Spreading the conflict outside of the borders of the Ukraine is a seriously wacky escalation and serves no direct strategic objective. It’s at least as provocative to Europe as it is to Russia. A core part of the proposition of European support for the Ukraine conflict is that it stays in the Ukraine, and now the Ukraine has begun bombing a different country.
Right now, Ukraine hasn’t even done serious damage in Moldova, so it reads as much like a warning to Europe as a warning to Russia. There is zero chance the Ukraine could do something like this without US State Department approval – certainly not more than once.
What the attacks on Transnistria show is that Ukraine is not actually “winning the war,” and even with an alleged $33 billion in US weapons incoming, they are resorting to weird terrorist actions.