Hezbollah Warns of Coming “War Without Rules or Ceilings,” Threatens to Bomb Cyprus

It’s often hard to put your finger on exactly when a war officially started.

In the case of Hezbollah, they’ve been firing rockets at Israel, and Israel has been bombing them, since October. Further, such events were not unheard of before that point either. The last major war between the two entities was in 2006. It was a 34-day war, which ended with an Israeli retreat that amounted to unconditional surrender. But there has never really been “peace,” per se.

We are probably now, due to the events of the last week, at the point where we can say that Israel is at war with Hezbollah once again. I don’t think the official date of the start of the war has been marked for the history books yet, but that could come at any moment. Israel has declared they are ready to go and that they’re going to go, and the back and forth between the countries has reached fever pitch.

One thing is for sure: Nasrallah has been around for a long time, and he’s never talked any shit he wasn’t ready to back-up with bullets.

The Guardian:

The leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned of a war “without rules or ceilings” in the event of a full-scale Israeli offensive against the Lebanese militia, as he threatened that Cyprus could become a target if it allowed Israel to use its territory in any conflict.

Cyprus and Israel have a bilateral defence cooperation agreement which has seen the countries conduct joint exercises.

Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” the Hezbollah chief said.

Again: a lot of people talk a lot of shit. I don’t know if this is more true of people in the Middle East simply due to circumstance, or if they are naturally more prone to it, but “we will attack you” is something that gets thrown around pretty constantly in the Middle East, and is rarely backed up.

Nasrallah has never been into this. He says what he means and he does what he says.

Everyone knows this, which is why upon hearing this, Cyprus immediately backed down.

Nikos Christodoulides, the island’s president, responded on Wednesday evening: “Cyprus remains uninvolved in any military conflicts and positions itself as part of the solution rather the problem.”

He sought to emphasise the humanitarian role the EU’s easternmost state had played in the Middle East, facilitating the opening of a sea corridor to transport desperately needed aid to Gaza.

“Our humanitarian corridor is a testament to our commitment to peace and stability,” he told reporters at a University of Cyprus graduation ceremony.

He added: “Such statements are not pleasant, but they do not reflect reality. Cyprus is not participating in any military engagements.”

Christodoulides said the threat would be raised through diplomatic channels.

Nasrallah’s remarks came a day after Israeli generals said they had signed off on planning for a wider offensive against Hezbollah, and Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, suggested the country was on the brink of deciding whether to expand the war.

Whether or not it was a “suggestion” or a “declaration of intent” is apparently open to interpretation. I saw Katz’ statements as effectively a declaration of war on Lebanon.

Speaking at a memorial for Taleb Sami Abdallah, the most senior Hezbollah commander to be killed by Israel since the two sides began cross border exchanges on 8 October, Nasrallah insisted that Hezbollah’s role was to support Hamas fighting in Gaza and that it had succeeded in tying up Israeli forces in the country’s north.

Nasrallah spoke about a strategy of a limited conflict with Israel, short of all-out war and aimed at a ceasefire in Gaza, but the rhetoric appeared more heated as he said that nowhere in Israel would be safe from Hezbollah’s attacks.

Nasrallah’s televised speech underlined the difficulty of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict between the two sides as it has edged into ever more dangerous territory.

We have more than 100,000 fighters, and even more, even in the worst-case scenario. We have prepared for the worst-case scenario and Israel knows it,” he said.

I can’t find a full translation of the speech, but I reckon those are the important bits.

He’s said from the beginning he’s ready for total war, and he knows Israel is going to start the war, and will almost certainly end up not simply targeting Hezbollah, but actually bombing Beirut.

The Jews have always looked at Lebanon no differently than they look at Gaza or the West Bank. There are parts of Lebanon that they claim sovereignty over, just as they claim the entirety of Palestine. The difference is, Hezbollah is capable of mounting a real defense.

All glory to Hamas, but they are definitely fighting a different kind of war. Their only goal is to stay alive, and to keep the rockets flying into Israeli-occupied territory. Hezbollah, conversely, is a real military capable of going toe-to-toe with the IDF head-on, and Hezbollah’s rocket capacity has the ability to land missiles not just on the outskirts of Israel, but deep inside of it.

Obviously, they don’t have US fighter jets and all of that, but they don’t need all of that.

I know I’ve said it a million times, but the bigger issue here is that when Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran will get involved. Israel will have proof Iran is involved. Israel will, at some point, begin bombing Iran, and Iran will strike back, and Israel will demand a bigger US presence and the US, as always, will do what they’re told. Then, through whatever series of events, Iran will end up in direct conflict with the US.

Iran will rightly view the conflict as existential, and will declare total war.

After that, we don’t know what happens.

But all of those happenings are effectively written in stone at this point.