NATO Preparing “Long-Term Support” Plan for the Territory of the Former Ukraine

It’s looking like the Ukraine is not going to be allowed to actually join NATO.

That means that Russia has accomplished nearly all of its goals in the war, almost completely.

To refresh, those goals were:

  • Preventing the Ukraine from joining NATO (Check)
  • Taking the two regions in the Donbass (Check+ – they’ve taken much more than that)
  • Demilitarization (Ongoing – the West is still sending weapons, but half the Ukraine population has fled or died)

Granted, a “NATO partnership” is somewhat similar to “joining NATO.” But it is not the same thing. Putin’s stated goal was for them to not join NATO. If they’d have joined NATO, Russia wouldn’t have been able to invade without triggering Article 5. It’s much different than a commitment of unlimited weapons.

It doesn’t really matter how long it takes Russia to finish the war, because they are winning so massively on the geopolitical scale. China is already sending equipment, so that Rubicon has been crossed, meaning there is zero chance Russia is ever going to run out of material.

This war can just keep going indefinitely. It doesn’t matter.


NATO members are racing to complete a plan to provide long-term support to Ukraine, but are wrestling with how best to assure the country’s security until it can join the military alliance, according to U.S. and European officials.

With four weeks to go until a NATO summit in Vilnius that is expected to approve the plan, there is agreement that Ukraine cannot join the alliance while fighting is still underway against Russian forces, a position accepted in early June by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after months of pleading for speedy admission.

Alliance members are close to agreeing incremental steps to strengthen ties with Ukraine, including upgrading how NATO and Kyiv cooperate and a multi-year program to help Ukraine bring its security forces to NATO operational and technical standards, according to officials.

The allies have yet to resolve differences over how to address Ukraine’s desire for membership, which has been governed by a vague 2008 declaration that it will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization without setting out how or when.

U.S. ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters on Wednesday that members are still discussing how to respond to the Kyiv government’s membership aspirations.

“There’s a rich conversation going on across the alliance with a whole array of views,” said Smith.

A senior alliance source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there is “a hard search on to find a mechanism that brings Ukraine closer to NATO without taking them into NATO.”

Western governments such as the U.S. and Germany are wary of moves they fear could take the alliance closer to entering an active war with Russia, which has long seen NATO’s expansion into eastern Europe as evidence of Western hostility.

Asked on June 2 about Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it “would be a potential problem for many, many years.”

It’s a potential problem, sure.

But it’s not happening now or any time in the foreseeable future.

Russia has already won the war.