A lot of people are saying that the leaked Israeli plan for total ethnic cleansing of Gaza is what is being enacted.
There are actually two separate issues at hand regarding that plan, which are a large ground offensive and a transfer of the civilian population to Egypt.
Presumably, none of us who are analyzing politics have crystal balls. We don’t have wizard powers. We do not have sources inside the State Department or Israeli government. Therefore, the only thing any of us can do is look at the situation and try to consider future outcomes based on the information we already have.
While some commenters may have insider sources, and some might lie about it, I don’t have any insider sources in politics and as a rule, I refuse to talk to anyone involved in politics, because of a policy I have called “don’t quote me, boy, cuz I ain’t said shit.”
For a long time, I took it for granted that everyone understands this: I don’t have magic powers, so any time I make a “prediction,” it is just a guess. Though I am right about everything else, this requirement of the job to consider future events is something that no one can be 100% right about. I challenge anyone to find someone who is right more often than me. Seriously – give me a name.
I was wrong about the Ukraine. I didn’t expect the US to commit like this. It was pretty common wisdom that I was following along with at the time, which said that Zelensky would surrender. As I cite often, Zelensky was preparing a surrender, and publicly stated that he was ready to surrender, and then Boris Johnson flew into Kiev and told him that he was not allowed to do that.
Meanwhile, I called the fall of Kabul to the Taliban more or less to the hour, while everyone on TV was saying “at least six months.”
This “predicting” thing is a big game for a lot of people in internet politics. I simply view it as a necessary part of my job. I have to bring things together and try to come to conclusions from the data you have. I do that on every topic, but with the topics I like writing about, there is no need to gaze into the future. With current events, you have no choice.
Much of this has become very difficult, because the people running the US are insane, and their decisions therefore do not always make clear sense. Slaughtering the Ukraine didn’t seem possible to me, but there you go.
I was wrong about the Ukraine, so I might be wrong about this: I don’t think there is going to be a major ground offensive.
What I can tell you without needing to predict the future is that it is outside of the capacity of the Jews to clear Hamas from Gaza. Hamas are much better fighters than the Jews, and the home team advantage that Hamas has is ultra-massive, given their system of tunnels, which they’ve spent nearly two decades digging.
The only people on the Jews’ team that could successfully fight Hamas are the US Marines.
The United States is claiming that no US troops will be deployed, and they are speaking of the conflict as if there is an end in sight.
American soldiers will not be deployed to Gaza during or after the current phase of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the White House has said, dismissing reports suggesting US troops could be sent on a peacekeeping mission.
During a Wednesday press briefing, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was asked whether US forces would be used to “stabilize the situation” in Gaza.
“There’s no plans or intentions to put US military troops on the ground in Gaza, now or in the future,” he said. “But we are… talking to our partners about what post-conflict Gaza should look like.”
Kirby went on to say that officials were considering “some sort of international presence” after fighting winds down in Gaza, but noted that no decisions on the issue had been made.
The US has previously said that they convinced the Israelis to scale down their invasion, which seems like a reference to the leaked plan. That plan is very extreme, and seems like something that Bibi Netanyahu would use to start negotiations with the State Department. I knew a guy who worked in real estate who told me he had a policy of opening negotiations for the purchase of a property by offering 40% less than the asking price. I don’t know if this was true. (It doesn’t seem true – he was very successful, and it doesn’t seem this would be the case if he negotiated like that.) But opening negotiations with an extreme offer is not something uncommon.
Moving the Gazan civilian population into camps in Egypt is basically a separate issue from the ground invasion itself. Transfer could be started right now. If Egypt opens the border, the civilian Gazans will cross it. This is true regardless of what they are saying (some are saying they won’t leave). How could they not? They are all starving to death while waiting to be bombed. Most of them have small children. Or rather, most of them are small children.
Egypt will open the border if you give them enough money. The logistics of setting up a refugee camp for two million people in a desert are beyond my comprehension. Water and sanitation present a huge challenge here. But the whole world supports Gaza, so the money is there. It is a monumental task, but it is within the realm of human possibility.
One thing I would have been wrong about if it had ever come up is the willingness of the Jews to totally wipe out all semblance of good will they’ve managed to steal by doing a mass slaughter of civilians. They’ve burned their Holocaust card. That’s done. They’re not getting that back. (I’m excited about this, because it opens up the ability for historical revisionism regarding 1930s Germany and the war to become more widespread.)
I do not know if the PR of the Jews could get any worse than it is right now. I made the point many years ago that Russia should just start doing all sorts of meddling, since they were already being falsely accused of it. That is to say: there was little that Russia could do to make the opinion of them in the West change. The Jews now have a similar situation, probably. Physically transferring the population of Gaza probably wouldn’t affect the global perception of the Jews, because right now, it would be very difficult for that perception to sink any lower.
It’s just as shocking, and perhaps more so, that the Jews were willing to burn the Abraham Accords, which were effectively the basis for some kind of 100 year plan for a “Greater Israel.” Those deals they made with the Arabs are now impossible for the Arabs to fulfill.
I don’t see that the Jews have much to lose in terms of PR, and regarding escalation with other nations in the region, they do not appear to care. They are acting as if they are totally invincible. In their minds, the Americans will always clean up any mess they make. It may also be that the Jews are biologically incapable of doing anything other than making a gigantic mess.
It’s likely that Hamas has months’ or even years’ worth of clean water and canned food in the tunnels. However, whatever amount they have is not infinite, so if the civilian population could be transferred, Hamas could be starved out, all things being equal. All things are not equal, but if they were, that would be the case.
I’m Going with “No”
When we look at the stance of the US, and the statements they’ve made regarding the Israelis not doing a very big ground operation, it’s important to consider that this could all be a massive bluff against Iran, Hezbollah, and others who have pledged to get involved if they have to, but apparently aren’t in a rush.
I should also note that we’ve yet to see any terrorism in the West as a result (or as an ostensible result) of this Gaza bombardment, and if that were to happen, the calculus could and probably would change. If something like 9/11 were to happen, or even something like a peace truck occurred, public sentiment would change.
It’s now clear that the reason Israel was so heavily involved in moving Moslems to Europe is that they wanted people to have negative opinions of Moslems. The refugees were, on the whole, the worst people from these countries. The Syrians who marched into Europe were literally war deserters. I understand conscientious objection to elective wars, Vietnam being the obvious example, but if you’re a healthy young man and your nation is facing an existential crisis and you flee, then you’re really human garbage.
The Jews wanted Europeans and Americans to have “the Moslem experience” in order to justify their own acts in the Middle East. If you have Moslems in your country rioting, committing crimes, and doing terrorism against you, you may develop a tribal instinct, where you are just against them in a general sense, and so you’re likely to support the Israelis killing them.
The Israelis don’t seem to be calculating public opinion, but the Americans are. They have widespread support for wars against Russia and China. Beyond public opinion, given that Russia and China are so heavily involved in the Middle East, the strategic move would be to take them out before opening a Middle East front.
You have the threats from Iran and others, and the possibility of a massive regional conflict where everyone is fighting Israel. The State Department seems intent on doing everything to avoid that right now.
There are other variables. Too many to list.
However, I do not think we are going to see two million people moved to tents in the Sinai desert. Please refer back to what I wrote above regarding my predictive powers, but I don’t think it is going to happen. It seems likely that some of the Gazans will leave, or rather, escape, over the next months. You’re probably going to see some in your neighborhood. Some will go to Egypt, and Jordan, and wherever.
But Israel is not going to defeat Hamas, and the idea of a military defeat of Hamas crossed with a forced military transfer to Sinai seems out of the question.